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It’s Gettin’ Hot in Here: ‘2012 Drought Update’ (Video)

From The Yale Climate Media Forum via YouTube:

The Drought of 2012 rivals the Great Dust Bowl years of the 30s and is coming at a time of melting arctic ice, shrinking ice sheets, and extreme events across the planet, matching the projections of climate models for global warming.

Related:

• ‘U.S. Drought and Climate Change: Science Points to Link’ (Wired)
• Thomas Homer-Dixon: ‘Climate change’s costs hit the plate’ (Globe & Mail)

(Map source: US Drought Monitor)

From Yale e360:

A draft report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says there is a 2-in-3 probability that human-caused climate change is already leading to an increase in extreme weather events. The draft summary, obtained by the Associated Press, said that increasingly wild weather, such as the downpours that have caused recent extreme flooding in Thailand, will lead to a growing toll in lost lives and property damage, and will render some locations “increasingly marginal as places to live.” The report says that scientists are “virtually certain” that continued warming will cause not only an increase in extreme heat waves and drought in some regions, but also will generate more intense downpours that lead to severe flooding. 

Check out the rest of the article here.

(Photo credit: The Boston Globe)

From Our Amazing Planet via MNN:

Records broken:

• Texas’ current drought is the most severe one-year drought on record, according to Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon of Texas A&M University.
• Texas had the warmest summer for any state going back to 1895, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The state’s average temperature was 86.8 degrees Fahrenheit (30.4 degrees Celsius). Its neighbors Oklahoma and Louisiana had the second- and fourth-warmest summers of any state, respectively.
• August 2011 was the hottest month in Texas history, according to the NCDC. The average temperature was 88.1 F (31.2 C), breaking the previous record of 87.1 F (30.6 C) set last month.
• In San Angelo, Texas, the record for warmest month was set three times in three months from June to August, according to the National Weather Service.
• June to August was the driest summer on record, with only 2.44 inches of precipitation.

  Putting it in perspective:

• January through August 2011 has seen only 7.47 inches (6.2 centimeters) of precipitation, also a new record to that stretch.
• The most severe Texas drought overall is still the 1950-1957 drought. During the most intense year of that drought, 1956, Texas set its all-time record for lowest 12-month precipitation, 13.69 inches (34.8 cm) ending in September.
• Levels of extreme (81 percent) and exceptional (14 percent) drought in Texas totaled 95 percent of the state’s area, according to the Drought Monitor.
• The drought isn’t confined to Texas. Nearly one-fifth of the contiguous United States is in the grip of extreme drought.

  Wildfire woes:

• The hot and dry weather has created dangerous fire conditions. Nearly 18,612 wildfires have burned 3.5 million acres of Texas so far this year, according to the Texas Forest Service. That’s about the size of Connecticut.
• Wildfires have destroyed more than 1,000 homes statewide.
• Six of the 10 largest wildfires in Texas history occurred in 2011.
• Texas has been fighting wildfires since Nov. 15, 2010.
• The damages from this year’s wildfires are estimated at more that $5 billion, according to news reports.

Check out the rest of the article here.

(Map credit: US Drought Monitor)

Climate Change Now and in the Future: Fast and Furious

The past week has seen a number of studies released looking at the current and future stability of global climate system. I sincerely hope they spur negotiators heading to COP 16 in Cancun, Mexico in December to put past differences behind them so we can get on with confronting with this massive challenge.

1) The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s released its Arctic Report Card: Update for 2010 (video) examining the impacts of Arctic warming on the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land, Greenland and ecosystems. The study’s key findings include that:

The Arctic climate is impacting mid-latitude weather, as seen in Winter 2009-2010

Summer sea ice conditions for the previous four years are well below levels in the 1980s and 1990s

Upper ocean temperatures are showing year-to-year variability without significant trends

Low winter snow accumulation + warm spring temperatures are leading to record low snow cover duration

Record setting high temperatures, ice melt, and glacier area loss

Rapid environmental change threatens to disrupt current natural cycles

Writing about the report card on the New York Times’ excellent Dot Earth blog, Andrew Revkin explains that:

… the frigid, untouchable Arctic etched in human history and lore is truly history, replaced by a region that is seeing long-term warming, reductions in sea ice and glaciers and shifts in ecosystems (not to mention intensifying economic activity).

And points to our role in the changes:

Researchers actively studying the trends almost uniformly conclude that, amid lots of year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability, the human-amplified greenhouse effect is playing a growing role.

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2) A National Center for Atmospheric Research study examining the impact of climate change on global water supplies concluded that:

… warming temperatures associated with climate change will likely create increasingly dry conditions across much of the globe in the next 30 years, possibly reaching a scale in some regions by the end of the century that has rarely, if ever, been observed in modern times.

However, the study shows that the drought effects will be uneven:

… most of the western two-thirds of the United States will be significantly drier by the 2030s. Large parts of the nation may face an increasing risk of extreme drought during the century.

Other countries and continents that could face significant drying include:

• Much of Latin America, including large sections of Mexico and Brazil
• Regions bordering the Mediterranean Sea, which could become especially dry
• Large parts of Southwest Asia
• Most of Africa and Australia, with particularly dry conditions in regions of Africa
• Southeast Asia, including parts of China and neighboring countries

The study also finds that drought risk can be expected to decrease this century across much of Northern Europe, Russia, Canada, and Alaska, as well as some areas in the Southern Hemisphere. However, the globe’s land areas should be drier overall.

3) An analysis by insurer Swiss Re of the economic implications of climate change on the US Gulf Coast concluded that:

The Gulf Coast is vulnerable to growing environmental risks today with >$350 billion of cumulative expected losses by 2030

Economic losses will increase by 50-65 percent in the 2030 timeframe driven by

• economic growth and subsidence, as well as the impacts of climate change: Wind and storm surge damage from hurricanes drives significant losses in the Gulf Coast today. While the actual losses from extreme storms are uncertain in any given year, on average, the Gulf Coast faces annual losses of ~$14 billion today.

• Over the next 20 years, the Gulf Coast could face cumulative economic damages of  some $350 billion: 7 percent of total capital investment for the Gulf Coast area and 3 percent of annual GDP will go towards reconstruction activities. In the 2030 timeframe, hurricane Katrina/Rita-type years of economic impact may become a once in every generation event as opposed to once every ~100 years today. The impact of severe hurricane in the near-term could also have a significant impact on any growth and reinvestment trajectory in the region.

4) Maplecroft, a global risk firm, has released its 2011 Climate Change Vulnerability Map ranking the “vulnerability of 170 countries to the impacts of climate change over the next 30 years”. A New Scientist article looking at the analysis identifies that:

… some of the world’s largest and fastest-growing economies, including India, as facing the greatest risks to their populations, ecosystems and business environments. 

A New Scientist article looking at the analysis reports that:

… although Africa is often regarded as the most vulnerable continent… the teeming plains of Asia are at greater risk in the next 30 years. Ten of the 16 most vulnerable countries are in Asia.

In the words of the great Bob Dylan the times they are a-changin’…