planted city

From The Vancouver Sun:

Large-scale green energy systems can affordably replace fossil fuel as the world’s primary source of electricity within 20 years, new research from the United States weather office suggests.

… a director with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Friday in Vancouver that wind and solar could supply 70 per cent of electricity demand in the lower 48 states, with fossil fuel and hydro/nuclear renewables each accounting for just 15 per cent by 2030.

Check out the rest of the article here. 

(Photo credit: Vancouver Sun)

From Wired News:

The global production of oil has remained relatively flat since 2005 and peaked in 2008, declining ever since even as demand has continued to increase. The result has been wild fluctuations in the price of oil as small changes in demand set off large shocks in the system.

In Wednesday’s issue of Nature, James Murray of University of Washington and David King of Oxford University argue this sort of volatility is what we can expect going forward, and we’re likely to face it with other fossil fuels as well.

The notion of peak oil is fairly simple: Oil is a finite resource and at some point we simply won’t be able to extract as much as we once did. There is no getting around that limit for any finite resource. The issue that has made peak oil contentious, however, is the debate over when we might actually hit it. Murray and King are not the first to conclude that we’ve already passed the peak. Even as prices have climbed by about 15 percent per year since 2005, production has remained largely flat.

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“We are not running out of oil,” the authors argue, “but we are running out of oil that can be produced easily and cheaply.”

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What are the consequences of being stuck at or near peak oil? The authors have produced a graph showing that, while supply is elastic enough to meet demand, prices stay stable. Once demand consistently exceeds supply, prices swing wildly. Murray and King term this a “phase transition” and suggest we’ll be in the volatile phase from here on out.

That has some significant consequences. Of the 11 recessions the United States has experienced since World War II, 10 have been preceded by a sudden change in oil prices. The United States isn’t alone, either. Italy’s entire trade deficit, which has contributed to its financial troubles, can be accounted for by the rise in imported oil. The world, it seems, has allowed its economies to become entirely dependent upon fossil fuels.

“If oil production can’t grow, the implication is that the economy can’t grow either,” the authors write. “This is such a frightening prospect that many have simply avoided considering it.”

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The commentary concludes that we simply can’t rely on any fossil fuel to provide a stable and economic source of energy for more than a couple of decades. And, given the economic shocks that result from rapid changes in energy prices, that’s a serious problem.

“Economists and politicians continually debate policies that will lead to a return to economic growth,” the authors note. “But because they have failed to recognize that the high price of energy is a central problem, they haven’t identified the necessary solution: weaning society off fossil fuel.”

Check out the rest of the article here.

The New York Times, Scientific American, PhysOrg, and Energy Bulletin all have their own coverage of this important study.

I’ve also attached the chart below from the International Energy Agency’s 2010 World Energy Outlook report. It pegs peak oil as having been reached in 2006. The chart’s white text was added by resilience strategist Chris Martenson in his economic analysis of the report’s implications.  

(Photo source: Wired News)

The opening paragraph from the article, ‘Climate change: Durban and everything that matters’, in The Economist. To get a sense of some of the modeled impacts of a 4 C (7 F) hotter Earth check out the map created by the United Kingdom’s national weather agency.  

From Reuters:

China has further revised up its solar power development target for 2015 by 50 percent from its previous plan, state media reported on Thursday.

The government has set a target for installed solar power generating capacity to reach 15 gigawatts by 2015 and wind power capacity to hit 100 GW, China National Radio reported, citing an announcement from the National Energy Administration.

The ambitious move may have been encouraged by a rapid increase in solar power installation in recent months after the government unified grid feed-in tariffs for solar projects for the first time in July, and offered a higher price for projects that would be put into operation before the year end.

China had doubled its 2015 solar power goal to 10 GW after the Japanese nuclear power crisis.

(Photo Credit: Associated Press)

From The Los Angeles Times:

Renewable energy is surpassing fossil fuels for the first time in new power-plant investments, shaking off setbacks from the financial crisis and an impasse at the United Nations global warming talks.

Electricity from the wind, sun, waves and biomass drew $187 billion last year compared with $157 billion for natural gas, oil and coal, according to calculations by Bloomberg New Energy Finance using the latest data. Accelerating installations of solar- and wind-power plants led to lower equipment prices, making clean energy more competitive with coal.

“The progress of renewables has been nothing short of remarkable,” United Nations Environment Program Executive Secretary Achim Steiner said in an interview. “You have record investment in the midst of an economic and financial crisis.”

Check out the rest of the article here.

(Photo credit: Bloomberg)

Hermann Scheer (1944-2010), economist, politician, solar advocate and champion of Germany’s groundbreaking Renewable Energy Act, in one of his final interviews. You can read the rest of the interview over at Energy Bulletin.

(Image: The world’s first commercial solar tower in Sanlúcar La Mayor, Spain. Source: Walrus Magazine)

Resilient Communities: ‘Surfing the Waves of Change’

From Cultivate Ireland via YouTube:

‘Surfing the Waves of Change’ is an animation exploring the idea of community resilience using the metaphor of a surfer to explain how communities can make themselves more resilient in these changing times. 

You can read more about the video over at Transition Voice. 

‘Global Oil Climax’

James Hansen, energy analyst and delegate at ASPO-USA’s 2011 Peak Oil, Energy and the Economy Conference, talks about some of the implications of a global peak in oil production on Platts Energy Week.

‘Groundbreaking data tracks carbon emissions back to their source’

From The Guardian:

For the purposes of the Kyoto treaty, a nation’s carbon footprint is considered to be a sum of all the greenhouse gas released within its borders. But as many people – myself included – have been pointing out for years, that approach ignores all the laptops, leggings, lampshades and other goods that rich countries import from China and elsewhere.

If we want any chance of a fair global climate deal, the now-familiar argument goes, we need to rethink the way we measure emissions to allocate some of the carbon pouring out of Chinese, Indian and Mexican factories and power plants to the countries importing good from those countries.

The new scientific paper, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, points out that this argument – though persuasive – tells only half of the story. If you want to understand how carbon footprints are affected by international trade flows, the paper argues, you need to consider trade not only in gadgets and garments but also in fossil fuels themselves. After all, though country X might import a television that was made in country Y, it’s quite possible that country Y in turn imported some of the coal, oil or gas consumed by the television factory from country Z.

Of course, there’s nothing revelatory in the idea that fossil fuels are traded between nations. We all know that, say, Saudi Arabia produces much of the world’s oil. But what the academics behind the new data have done is a remarkable feat of number crunching: they’ve tracked the carbon flows of virtually the whole world, from the countries extracting the oil, gas and coal via the countries in which it’s burned to the countries that ultimately consume the goods and services all that energy is used to create.

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All of which will appeal to climate data enthusiasts, but is the study actually important? I think it is – not so much because it has any obvious practical applications, but because the data helps reminds campaigners, consumers and policymakers alike that the climate-change problem is ultimately about fossil fuel coming out of the ground. That sounds an obvious thing to say but it’s a point often forgotten in all the discussions about clean energy or national emissions cuts – both of which are necessary but not sufficient to meet the challenge of leaving most of the world’s hydrocarbons in the ground.

Check out the rest of the article and an accompanying “Extraction to Consumption” chart that shows the source of the fuels used to support the lifestyles in each country here.

Renewable Energy: A Map of Earth’s Solar Energy Potential 

From e360:

This map illustrates annual energy generation potential using so-called crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) systems. The regions with the largest PV potentials, which include the Himalaya and Southern Andes, have a combination of large irradiation values and low temperatures. Researchers say the Himalayan region is especially attractive since it is located close to countries with large future energy demands, including China and India. 

The map accompanies the article, ‘Earth’s Coldest Regions Have Best Solar Potential, Study Says’.